1 Pick From Every Game NFL Week 4

Hail Mary Media
September 27, 2025

If you’re still betting off gut feelings, you’re leaving money on the table. I dig into real stats, matchup trends, and injury reports to uncover value the sportsbooks miss. Each pick below is built on hard numbers, not hype. Subscribe to the newsletter and you’ll get every weekly breakdown like this delivered before the lines move. Free, sharp, and ready to cash.

Steelers vs Vikings Under 41
Pittsburgh’s offense is sputtering in yards per play and has been turnover prone, while Minnesota has managed to control possessions and move the ball efficiently. The Steelers rank near the bottom in total offensive yardage through three weeks and the Vikings are averaging roughly 268 to 370 yards and have converted third downs efficiently. Those two factors, Pittsburgh’s low output and Minnesota’s clock control, point to fewer possessions and a sub 41 total.

Saints +15 vs Bills
Buffalo remains an explosive scoring team, but New Orleans has shown it can limit big plays and force long drives that chew clock. The Bills just made a defensive depth move this week, elevating DT Jordan Phillips to help the interior rotation, which matters against New Orleans’ run first approach. This line is big, but the Saints’ ability to win the field position battle and force sustained drives makes +15 playable.

Giants vs Chargers Under 43.5
The Chargers generate steady yardage but are not blowing the doors off opponents, and the Giants are averaging under 18 points per game while relying on longer drives rather than quick strike scoring. Expect longer possessions, clock swings, and fewer total plays, a classic recipe for under 43.5.

Eagles -3.5 vs Buccaneers
Philadelphia is one of the most efficient scoring teams through three weeks, sitting top 10 in points per game, and they dominate time of possession. Tampa Bay is scoring but not as consistently and has allowed more yards than the Eagles’ offense averages. When the Eagles control the line of scrimmage and clock, -3.5 is the clean bet.

Patriots vs Panthers Under 43
Both teams are in the bottom half of the league in explosive play rate and rely on conservative drives. The Patriots are averaging a mid 20s time of possession and the Panthers are not generating big offensive spikes. That keeps this total under 43. Expect field position football.

Falcons -2 vs Commanders
Atlanta has improved offensive efficiency and a higher yards per play mark than Washington, who has been more turnover dependent. The Commanders are respectable defensively, but the Falcons’ third down execution tilts this number in Atlanta’s favor.

Titans vs Texans Over 39
Both Tennessee and Houston show defensive weaknesses and neither has consistently shut down opponent drives. The Titans have produced larger rushing totals and the Texans have generated chunk plays. When both teams move the ball on early downs this one opens up into an over.

Lions -10 vs Browns
Detroit ranks near the top in offensive yards per game and scoring, while Cleveland’s offense has been uneven and low in total yardage. The Lions create big play opportunities and convert them, and the Browns are offering little resistance. Ten points is large, but Detroit can bury weaker defenses early and force quick turnovers.

Colts ML vs Rams
Indianapolis is playing exceptional complementary football with an efficient offense and a defense that limits scoring, while the Rams have underperformed in sustained drives and third down conversions. The Colts’ ability to control tempo and win the turnover battle makes the moneyline the safer route.

49ers -3.5 vs Jaguars
San Francisco leads the league in physical play up front and limits explosive pass plays. Jacksonville’s defense has been spotty in points allowed and sack generation. If the 49ers protect their quarterback and win the trenches, they should cover a field goal line at home.

Bears ML vs Raiders
Chicago’s offense is trending up in yards per game and their pass rush has produced pressures that have beaten teams like the Raiders. Las Vegas has surrendered consistent points and sacks allowed are a problem. Bears outright is a value play given the Raiders’ offensive line struggles.

Ravens -2.5 vs Chiefs
Baltimore’s run first, clock control offense is averaging strong rushing numbers and the Ravens create pressure on opponents. Kansas City is explosive but has shown defensive vulnerabilities. Baltimore’s ability to win time of possession and run the ball gives them an edge under three points.

Packers -6.5 vs Cowboys
Green Bay’s offense has more balance and their defense is generating pressure at a higher clip than Dallas allows. The Packers are executing in areas the Cowboys have struggled with, third down stops and limiting big runs, which makes -6.5 a solid play.

Jets ML vs Dolphins
New York’s defense is holding opponents to fewer points and piling up sacks. Miami’s offense is underperforming compared to last season, with issues in protection and scoring efficiency. The Jets’ ability to pressure and force mistakes makes the moneyline appealing.

Broncos vs Bengals Under 44
Denver’s defense ranks among the stingiest in points allowed, while Cincinnati’s offense is not producing explosive yardage per play. Two teams built to grind and protect field position point to a lower total.

1 Pick From Every Game NFL Week 4

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