1 Pick From Every NFL Game Week 6

Hail Mary Media
October 09, 2025

If you’re still betting off gut feelings, you’re leaving money on the table. I dig into matchup trends, injury juice, and game scripts that sportsbooks gloss over. Every pick below is built on football logic, not hype. Subscribe to the newsletter and you’ll get weekly breakdowns like this before the lines move. Free. Sharp. Ready to cash.

Eagles vs Giants Over 40.5
Philly moves the ball and they control the line of scrimmage better than anyone. The Giants defense gives up red zone touchdowns at one of the worst rates in the league. When the Eagles hit chunk plays early, New York is forced to throw and play catch-up. That opens the scoring floodgates. Over 40.5 is the play.

Broncos vs Jets Under 43.5
Denver’s defense has quietly been elite on third downs. The Jets offense can’t sustain drives and their red zone efficiency is bottom-tier. Add in a slower tempo from both teams and you’ve got a game that grinds the clock down. Under 43.5 makes sense.

Cardinals +7.5 vs Colts
The Colts defense has shown cracks in the secondary and struggles against balanced playcalling. Arizona’s offense can grind it out with the run game and safe short passes. Even if they don’t win outright, 7.5 points gives you plenty of room in a close fight. Take the Cardinals with the points.

Patriots -3.5 vs Saints
New England wins games with defense and discipline. The Saints offense keeps stalling in the red zone and they can’t finish drives. This game doesn’t need a blowout for you to cover. Patriots by at least a touchdown feels right.

Rams vs Ravens Over 44.5
Both teams have explosive potential. Baltimore can score in bunches when they get rolling and the Rams have the firepower to answer back. This has the look of a back-and-forth game that clears 44 easily. Over 44.5 has solid value.

Cowboys -3 vs Panthers
Dallas owns the trenches and can bully Carolina for four quarters. The Panthers defense gives up way too many yards on first down, which sets up easy conversions. The Cowboys offense is too balanced to stall here. Dallas covers by a touchdown.

Seahawks Moneyline vs Jaguars
Seattle’s defense creates turnovers and the offense finally looks stable. Jacksonville has been inconsistent under pressure. I’m taking Seattle straight up to win — no need to mess with the spread.

Dolphins +4 vs Chargers
Miami ranks near the top in third down conversions and yards after catch. The Chargers secondary has been carved up for weeks. This number feels off. +4 gives you protection in a close shootout, and the Dolphins can win this outright.

Steelers -5.5 vs Browns
Pittsburgh’s defense is the truth. They dominate the line, create turnovers, and kill drives. The Browns offense disappears late in games. The Steelers are built to pull away in the second half. Lay the 5.5.

Titans vs Raiders Under 41.5
Two offenses that struggle to finish drives and live on field goals. Expect a slow tempo and a ton of punts. This feels like a 20-17 type of game. Under 41.5.

Bengals +14 vs Packers
Fourteen points is a ton. Green Bay is still too inconsistent to trust with that number. Cincinnati will make mistakes, but they fight. If they get any kind of rhythm offensively, they’ll hang around. Take the Bengals and the cushion.

Buccaneers vs 49ers Under 47.5
The 49ers are dealing with key injuries, and Tampa’s defense doesn’t give up big plays. Expect both teams to lean on the run and chew clock. Under 47.5 makes sense in what should be a slower-paced game.

Lions Moneyline vs Chiefs
Detroit has been rolling. They can bully teams up front and sustain drives. The Chiefs offense still has the firepower, but Detroit’s balance can keep Mahomes off the field. I’m backing the Lions to win straight up.

Bills vs Falcons Over 50
Buffalo’s offense can drop 30 on anyone, and Atlanta’s defense gives up explosives. The Falcons have enough weapons to answer back and keep the pace up. This one smells like a shootout. Over 50.

Bears Moneyline vs Commanders
Upset pick. Chicago’s defense is sneaky tough, and Washington’s offense can’t string together consistent drives. If the Bears win the turnover battle, they take this outright. Worth the shot.

1 Pick From Every NFL Game Week 6

Subscribe to keep reading

Keep Reading

Framework