1 Pick from Every NFL Week 1 Game

Hail Mary Media
September 04, 2025

NFL Week 1 is finally here, and I have one pick from every single game either over/under or against the spread. Let’s get right into it ⬇️⬇️⬇️

Eagles vs. Cowboys — Cowboys +8.5

The Eagles dominated the Cowboys last season, sweeping the series with a combined score of 75–13. However, the Cowboys have made significant improvements, including a revamped offensive line and the addition of key playmakers. While the Eagles remain strong, the Cowboys are poised to keep the game within a touchdown. Pick: Cowboys +8.5

Chargers vs. Chiefs — Under 46

The Chiefs have a history of starting the season strong, but the Chargers' defense has improved, and both teams may take time to find their offensive rhythm. With the over/under set at 46, this game is expected to stay under the total. Pick: Under 46

Saints vs. Cardinals — Under 43

The Saints are starting Spencer Rattler at quarterback, and the Cardinals are in a rebuilding phase. Both teams have question marks on offense, and their defenses are expected to control the tempo. With the over/under at 43, this game is likely to be low-scoring. Pick: Under 43

Bengals vs. Browns — Bengals -5

The Bengals are heavy favorites against a Browns team that finished 2024 with a 3–14 record. Cincinnati has dominated this matchup recently, and with Joe Burrow leading the offense, they should cover the spread. Pick: Bengals -5

Raiders vs. Patriots — Patriots -2.5

The Patriots, under new head coach Mike Vrabel, are favored at home against the Raiders. New England has been strong in season openers, and with the Raiders still adjusting under their new regime, the Patriots should cover the spread. Pick: Patriots -2.5

Falcons vs. Buccaneers — Under 47.5

Both teams have solid defenses and offenses that may take time to gel. The Falcons and Buccaneers have a history of low-scoring games, and with the over/under set at 47.5, this matchup is expected to stay under the total. Pick: Under 47.5

Giants vs. Commanders — Giants +6

The Giants are starting Russell Wilson at quarterback, aiming to revamp their offense. The Commanders' defense, under Dan Quinn, is aggressive, but the Giants' new-look offense should keep the game close. With the spread at +6, the Giants are a solid pick. Pick: Giants +6

Panthers vs. Jaguars — Panthers +3.5

The Panthers are underdogs against the Jaguars, but Carolina's defense is strong, and the offense has potential with rookie quarterback Bryce Young. The Jaguars' offense may take time to click, making the Panthers a good bet to cover the spread. Pick: Panthers +3.5

Dolphins vs. Colts — Dolphins ML

The Dolphins are slight underdogs against the Colts, but Miami's offense, led by Tua Tagovailoa, is explosive. The Colts are starting Daniel Jones at quarterback, which could lead to struggles against a tough Dolphins defense. Miami should win outright. Pick: Dolphins ML

Steelers vs. Jets — Steelers -2.5

The Steelers are favored at home against the Jets, who are starting Justin Fields at quarterback. Pittsburgh's defense is formidable, and the Jets' offense may struggle with a new system and a new quarterback. The Steelers should cover the spread. Pick: Steelers -2.5

Titans vs. Broncos — Over 42.5

Both teams have offenses that can put up points, and with the over/under at 42.5, this game is expected to go over the total. The Titans' revamped offensive line and the Broncos' potent passing attack should lead to a high-scoring affair. Pick: Over 42.5

49ers vs. Seahawks — Over 43.5

The 49ers and Seahawks are divisional rivals with explosive offenses. Both teams have the capability to score quickly, and with the over/under at 43.5, this game is likely to go over the total. Pick: Over 43.5

Texans vs. Rams — Rams -2.5

The Rams are favored at home against the Texans, who are in a rebuilding phase. Los Angeles has a solid roster and should be able to cover the spread against a Houston team that struggled last season. Pick: Rams -2.5

Lions vs. Packers — Lions +2.5

The Lions are underdogs against the Packers, but Detroit's revamped offensive line and strong defense give them an edge. The Packers' red zone efficiency has declined, and with the spread at +2.5, the Lions are a solid pick to cover. Pick: Lions +2.5

Ravens vs. Bills — Over 50.5

Both teams have high-powered offenses, and with the over/under at 50.5, this game is expected to be a shootout. The Ravens and Bills have the capability to score quickly, making the over a strong play. Pick: Over 50.5

Vikings vs. Bears — Under 43.5

The Vikings and Bears have strong defenses and offenses that may take time to develop. With the over/under at 43.5, this game is expected to stay under the total as both teams focus on controlling the clock. Pick: Under 43.5

1 Pick from Every NFL Week 1 Game

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