6 Picks For College Football Week 1

Hail Mary Media
August 29, 2025

Let’s be straight. Week 1 college football is here, and College Football Picks mean cold hard conviction, not guesses. I’m dropping the heat on six matchups, stacking real data behind every claim, and calling it like it is. If you’re ready to back big dogs with brains, you’re in the right place.

Ohio State vs Texas – Under 47 points

These are two blue-blood programs with high stakes and low familiarity. Ohio State brings back playmakers like WR Jeremiah Smith, who already has 211 yards and 3 scores this season, plus a defensive anchor in safety Caleb Downs and linebacker Sonny Styles. Texas counters with Arch Manning at QB, but both teams are breaking in nearly new offensive lines, so neither side brings continuity up front. Historical context: the spread hovers around 1 point, over/under is 47.5, and betting models lean under. Expect mismatched timing, opening-week rust, and defenses ready to pounce.
Pick wins because both teams will be sloppy and cautious out of the gate, limiting scoring.
Bet: Under 47

Alabama –14 vs Florida State

Alabama has been the gold standard in openers. New QB, same result: blowout. FSU’s offense is in rebuild mode. I don’t even need stats. The Tide’s depth, power, and kickoff-year momentum crush early-week foes too soft to answer.
Pick wins because Alabama’s depth and discipline smash shaky Week 1 FSU.
Bet: Alabama –14

Penn State –43.5 vs Nevada

No mercy here. Penn State returns star RBs Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen, powering a run game that averaged 202 yards and 5.3 yards per carry last year. Their defense allowed just 294.8 total yards per game, which was 7th best in the FBS. Meanwhile, Nevada’s defense is almost entirely new, and their unit allowed 192.8 rushing yards per game last year. Vegas spreads are north of 44 points, and models project final margins like 49-6 or worse.
Pick wins because Penn State’s offensive firepower and stout run defense will roll right over Nevada.
Bet: Penn State –43.5

Iowa vs Albany – Under 50.5

Iowa doesn’t play fast, and Albany can’t hang in a track meet. Low pace, low rhythm, and an inexperienced offense equals stagnant scoreboards. If one team has to dominate possession to win, we’re looking at an under. No fireworks, just grind.
Pick wins because Iowa’s deliberate tempo and Albany’s limitations kill scoring upside.
Bet: Under 50.5

Clemson –4 vs LSU

Death Valley is a beast at night. Clemson has QB Cade Klubnik, a loaded offensive line, and a defense molded by Tom Allen’s schemes. LSU has juice with offensive weapons, but turnover on their offensive front and Clemson’s home environment tilt this. Clemson controls tempo, pacing, and momentum.
Pick wins because Clemson’s cohesion and home crowd overwhelm LSU hype.
Bet: Clemson –4

Notre Dame –2.5 vs Miami

Irish defense isn’t playing. They’ll bring the physicality and discipline to limit Miami’s explosive flashes. The Hurricanes may show some splash plays, but Notre Dame’s shut-down mentality and experience in these tight rhythm games win out. This is a gut-check for Miami, and ND doesn’t flinch.
Pick wins because Notre Dame’s defense and execution will outlast Miami’s showboating.
Bet: Notre Dame –2.5

TL;DR. No fluff, full conviction:

Under 47 — Ohio State vs Texas
Alabama –14 over Florida State
Penn State –43.5 over Nevada
Under 50.5 — Iowa vs Albany
Clemson –4 over LSU
Notre Dame –2.5 over Miami

There. Stats, story, swagger. You got real insight, real clarity, and real picks.

6 Picks For College Football Week 1

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