6 Picks for College Football Week 4

Hail Mary Media
September 19, 2025

Let's be straight. Week 4 separates people who talk from people who bet with conviction. Six picks. Real numbers behind each. No fluff.

Texas Tech vs Utah This total screams trap game after both teams showed offensive inconsistencies early. Texas Tech's defense has been porous, but Utah's offense hasn't been the explosive unit we expected coming into the season. Both teams are dealing with quarterback questions and red zone struggles that lead to field goals instead of touchdowns. The weather in Salt Lake City plus both defenses getting extra rest favors a grind-it-out affair. Pick wins because both offenses lack the consistency to sustain long scoring drives in a game that becomes a defensive slugfest. Bet: Under 57.5

Syracuse vs Clemson Clemson is laying too many points against a Syracuse team that's shown they can hang with anyone when they play with house money. The Orange have nothing to lose on the road and Clemson's offense hasn't been dominant enough to blow out quality opponents. Syracuse's defense creates turnovers and their offense can control the clock when needed. This spread assumes Clemson dominates for four quarters, but rivalry-adjacent games rarely play out that cleanly. Pick wins because Syracuse's veteran leadership keeps them within two touchdowns in a game closer than the oddsmakers expect. Bet: Syracuse +17.5

Michigan vs Nebraska Michigan's defense travels and Nebraska's offense hasn't shown it can consistently move the ball against elite units. The Wolverines are getting disrespected after early struggles, but their talent advantage shows up in big spots. Nebraska's home field helps, but Michigan's championship DNA kicks in when they need a statement win. The Cornhuskers have shown flashes but lack the depth to hang when Michigan's superior athletes start wearing them down. Pick wins because Michigan's defensive pressure creates short fields and their running game controls the fourth quarter. Bet: Michigan ML

Oklahoma vs Auburn Oklahoma's offense has multiple weapons that Auburn's defense hasn't faced yet this season. The Sooners are catching Auburn at the perfect time - before the Tigers' home crowd gets into full swing and while their defense is still figuring out personnel rotations. Oklahoma's speed on the outside plus their ground game creates mismatches that compound as the game progresses. Auburn showed heart early but this is a step up in class. Pick wins because Oklahoma's balanced attack wears down Auburn's defense and creates separation in the second half. Bet: Oklahoma -6.5

Florida vs Miami Both defenses have been the story early this season, and this game screams field position battle. Florida's defense at home is nasty, and Miami's offense hasn't faced this level of pressure yet. The Gators can control tempo and force Miami into long drives they haven't had to execute consistently. Both teams prefer grinding out wins rather than shootouts, and the atmosphere favors defensive stops over explosive plays. Pick wins because both defenses are built to limit big plays and force field goals in a game decided by execution, not fireworks. Bet: Under 50.5

Illinois vs Indiana Illinois is getting points in a game where they should be competitive throughout. Indiana's offense has looked good early, but Illinois's defense creates problems with their pressure packages and secondary play. The Fighting Illini can control the clock with their ground game and keep this close even if Indiana takes an early lead. This spread assumes Indiana pulls away, but Illinois has the coaching and veteran leadership to hang around. Pick wins because Illinois's ball control offense and opportunistic defense keep them within a touchdown in a Big Ten slugfest. Bet: Illinois +6.5

6 Picks for College Football Week 4

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