6 Picks for College Football Week 7

Hail Mary Media
October 11, 2025

Every Saturday, the market separates the sharps from the scrolls. Lines move, public bias floods in, and the real value hides in the details like matchups, injuries, and how books overreact to headlines. You gave me six Week 7 plays. Here’s the rundown with no fluff and no bullshit. Line snapshot, why the number’s wrong, what to watch for, and exactly how it hits.

Ohio State vs Illinois UNDER 51.5
The books are sitting right around the low 50s which screams grind game. You’re basically betting that Ohio State plays keep-away and Illinois can’t hit explosives.

Why it’s live: Illinois isn’t built for speed. They’re built for slow, methodical drives that eat clock. Ohio State’s defense forces long possessions and short fields. When you’ve got a team that milks clock and another that makes you earn every yard, you take the under.

What to watch: Keep an eye on offensive line updates and QB health for both sides. A late injury to a key playmaker or lineman could hammer this total even lower.

How it wins: Ohio State dictates tempo, chews the clock, and keeps Illinois stuck in 3rd and long hell. Unless Illinois breaks two big plays, this game dies somewhere in the mid 40s.

Pitt -10.5 vs Florida State
The public loves the name Florida State but this is a spot where that hype creates free value. Pitt’s been overlooked all year but they play clean and physical enough to hang around.

Why it’s live: Rivalry vibes aside, this number is inflated because people still think FSU is the FSU from last year. They’re not. Their defense is banged up and Pitt’s offense can control the game if they stay ahead of the sticks. Ten and a half is a ton of points to give up when you can’t get consistent stops.

What to watch: FSU’s offensive line and receiver health. If they’re missing even one starter on either front, Pitt’s live all day.

How it wins: Pitt turns this into a field position game, hits a few play-action shots, and frustrates FSU with long drives. You don’t need an upset, just a game that stays within single digits.

Alabama -3.5 vs Missouri
This line feels like a trap for the casuals. Alabama’s laying just over a field goal and that’s the right side.

Why it’s live: Missouri’s been scrappy, sure, but this is where talent depth shows up. Alabama’s defense is finally playing like itself again and Mizzou doesn’t have the front to handle that pressure for four quarters. When the number’s under 4 you’re basically betting on Saban not choking.

What to watch: Check for late defensive injury news on the Tide’s side. As long as their key front-seven guys are good to go, this number is short.

How it wins: Bama wins the trenches, forces a couple short fields, and cashes red-zone drives. It’s the classic don’t overthink it play.

Oklahoma ML vs Texas
Red River Shootout. Chaos every year. You’re betting Oklahoma straight up, no safety net, and that’s the right call if you believe in the turnover battle.

Why it’s live: Texas has been overhyped all season and they’ve been flirting with disaster in second halves. Oklahoma’s got the speed and the QB edge to flip the script if this turns into a tight one. Moneyline is the play because the Sooners either win it outright or die trying.

What to watch: Texas’ offensive line and QB health. Any late scratch there makes this even juicier.

How it wins: Oklahoma plays faster, wins the turnover margin, and forces Texas to chase. One pick six, one busted coverage, and you’re cashing the ML before the 4th even starts.

Oregon -7 vs Indiana
Autzen Stadium at night. Indiana’s walking into a buzzsaw. The Ducks don’t lose focus at home and a touchdown line is too small for this mismatch.

Why it’s live: Oregon’s tempo and physicality blow out teams that don’t have depth. Indiana’s been playing over their head but when the Ducks get rolling they cover sevens with ease.

What to watch: Indiana’s front seven. If they’re missing a linebacker or a starting D-lineman, this could turn into a bloodbath by halftime.

How it wins: Oregon controls pace, scores quick, and forces Indiana to throw early. Once the Ducks open a two-score lead, it’s over.

Michigan vs USC OVER 56.5
This one’s simple. Two high-powered offenses and not enough defense. The total’s in the mid 50s and that’s too low for the speed on the field.

Why it’s live: Both of these teams can score from anywhere and neither is built to slow down tempo. USC wants to go vertical, Michigan can match them stride for stride, and you’ve got the perfect storm for a 38–31 type of game.

What to watch: Just make sure there’s no random weather issue or surprise injury at QB. Otherwise, all systems go.

How it wins: Michigan scores quick. USC answers. Rinse and repeat. If this doesn’t clear 56.5 it’s because someone forgot how to tackle.

6 Picks for College Football Week 7

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