6 Picks For College Fotball Week 3

Hail Mary Media
September 12, 2025

Let's be straight. Week 3 separates people who talk from people who bet with conviction. Six picks. Real numbers behind each. No fluff.

Texas vs UTEP

UTEP's defense allowed massive chunks to Ohio State and now faces a Texas offense that's been methodical in building leads. The Miners have no answer for Texas's depth advantage - when the Longhorns start rotating fresh bodies in the third quarter, this becomes a blowout factory. Texas is covering this massive spread in well over 50% of computer simulations, and the eye test backs it up. UTEP's defensive struggles plus Texas's home field advantage in a mismatch of this magnitude creates the perfect storm for a backdoor cover that never comes. Pick wins because Texas's superior depth turns a comfortable lead into a rout when UTEP's defense breaks down late. Bet: Texas -40.5

Miami vs USF

Miami has been clean and sharp so far with explosive playmakers like Rueben Bain Jr. wreaking havoc on defense. USF showed fight early but lacks the horses to hang when Miami's speed starts creating separation. The Hurricanes' passing attack has multiple weapons, and their defense forces turnovers that become short fields. This isn't a statement game for Miami - it's target practice. Pick wins because Miami's talent advantage shows up in the second half when USF's depth gets exposed. Bet: Miami -17.5

Ohio State vs Ohio

Ohio State's home crowd plus their overwhelming talent disparity makes this a second-half avalanche waiting to happen. The Buckeyes opened as 31.5-point favorites and the line has dropped, creating value on a team that should name the score. Ohio has shown flashes but can't sustain drives against elite defenses. When OSU starts hitting explosive plays, this snowballs fast. Pick wins because Ohio State's speed and depth advantage creates a gap that widens every quarter. Bet: Ohio State -28.5

Texas A&M vs Notre Dame

Both defenses have been stout early, and this matchup screams possession battle. The total opened at 50.5 and both teams prefer grinding out wins rather than shootouts. A&M's defense travels well, and Notre Dame's offense has been inconsistent in big spots. Weather and nerves in a marquee matchup typically favor the under. Pick wins because both defenses are built to limit explosive plays and force field goals instead of touchdowns. Bet: Under 51

Vanderbilt vs South Carolina

Diego Pavia said plenty about this one over the summer and gets his second opportunity to beat South Carolina after last season's blowout. Vandy has the revenge motivation and the coaching staff that knows how to slow down South Carolina's attack. The Commodores can control tempo and keep this close with smart game management. South Carolina is favored by 4.5 points, but rivalry games and revenge spots often come down to execution in tight moments. Pick wins because Vanderbilt's motivation and game plan keep them within a field goal in a lower-scoring affair. Bet: Vanderbilt +3.5

Georgia vs Tennessee

Both teams are off to fast starts with explosive offenses that have been putting up points. The total is set at 50.5 in what should be a back-and-forth SEC showcase. Tennessee's home crowd creates energy that leads to big plays, while Georgia's offense has multiple weapons that can strike quickly. Both defenses are good but not lockdown units, and the pace of this game favors scoring. Pick wins because both offenses are too explosive to be held under 24 points each in a high-energy SEC battle. Bet: Over 50.5

6 Picks For College Fotball Week 3

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